By Sarah Dutton, Jennifer
De Pinto, Anthony Salvanto, and Fred Backus
Donald
Trump (24 percent) leads a fractured Republican field in the race for the GOP
nomination in the latest national CBS News Poll. Behind him are Jeb Bush (13
percent) and Scott Walker (10 percent).
Trump
leads among a wide array of Republican primary voters. He appears to have
tapped into public anger toward Washington: he holds a large lead among
Republican primary voters who say they are angry. And 79 percent think Trump
says what he believes, rather than what people want to hear, far higher than
the other candidates tested.
Trump
may be the top choice among a quarter of Republican primary voters, but there
are other voters who would be less enthusiastic. At 27 percent, he tops the
list of candidates Republican voters would be most dissatisfied with as the
party's nominee.
Trump,
Bush, Walker and Rubio are all viewed more positively than negatively, but
Trump has the highest unfavorable ratings. His ratings among registered voters
overall are especially negative.
Majorities
of Republican primary voters are confident in Trump, Bush, Rubio and Walker to
handle key issues. Trump does best on the economy and illegal immigration,
while Bush does best on dealing with America's adversaries. Trump and Bush are
seen as the candidates most likely to win a general election.
The
Republican Race
Just
days before the Republican presidential candidates square off in their first
debate, Donald Trump is in the top spot among Republican primary voters
nationally - 24 percent support him as the nominee. Trump is followed by Jeb
Bush (13 percent), Scott Walker (10 percent), Mike Huckabee (eight percent),
Ben Carson (six percent), Ted Cruz (six percent), and Marco Rubio (six
percent). Further down are Rand Paul (4 percent) and Chris Christie (3
percent). Other contenders are below three percent. Nine percent of Republican
primary voters say they don't know who they want as the nominee at this point.
Among
Trump supporters, the most popular second choice candidates for the Republican
party's nomination are Carson, Bush, Cruz and Rubio.
Trump
appeals to many factions of Republican primary voters. He leads among
conservatives, Tea Party supporters, evangelicals and both men and women. Among
Republican primary voters who do not consider themselves Tea Partiers, the race
is closer. Bush (21 percent) performs better among this group, edging out Trump
(19 percent).
Also,
Trump leads among Republican primary voters on both sides of the illegal
immigration debate - those who support legal status for illegal immigrants in
the U.S and those who think those immigrants should be required to leave the
country.
Trump
and Bush are also seen as the most electable in a general election. At this
early stage of the campaign, 26 percent say Trump has the best chance of
winning in November 2016, and 23 percent pick Bush as having the best chance.
Walker comes in third here, with eight percent.
Trump
may be the top choice among a quarter of Republican primary voters, but there
are other voters who would be less enthusiastic about him as their party's
nominee. Trump (27 percent) is the candidate Republicans would be most
dissatisfied with as the party's nominee for president, followed by Bush (18
percent) and Christie (10 percent).
Twenty-five
percent of voters who would be dissatisfied with Trump as the nominee are
backing Bush, followed by Rubio (12 percent), Huckabee (11 percent), and Walker
(10 percent).
Republican
primary voters (42 percent) are more likely than their Democratic counterparts
(25 percent) to be angry at how things are going in Washington, and the poll
suggests that Trump has tapped into some of that anger.
Republican
primary voters who are angry at Washington are currently supporting Trump (30
percent) for the nomination by a wide margin. The second most popular candidate
in this category is Huckabee, with 10 percent.
Views
of the Republican Candidates, Issues and Qualities
One of
Trump's strengths may be the perception that he says what is on his mind. The
poll finds 79 percent of Republican primary voters say Trump says what he
believes, rather than what people want to hear - the highest of the GOP
contenders asked about. Republican voters are also inclined to say that Rubio
and Walker say what they believe (although to a lesser extent than Trump), but
they are divided on Bush: 46 percent think he says what he believes, but nearly
as many - 44 percent- think he mostly says what people want to hear.
Majorities
of Republican primary voters nationwide express confidence in Trump, Bush,
Rubio and Walker to make the right decisions on the economy, illegal
immigration and dealing with America's adversaries. Seventy-one percent of
these voters are confident in Trump on economic decisions, and 65 percent are
confident in his ability to make decisions on illegal immigration. Sixty-eight
percent of these voters are confident in Bush's ability to deal with America's
adversaries. About one in five GOP primary voters don't know enough about
Walker to rate him on these issues.
Bush,
Rubio, Trump and Walker are all viewed more favorably than unfavorably among
Republican primary voters, although Trump has the highest unfavorable rating -
38 percent - among these four candidates. He is also the most known to
Republican voters - only 14 percent are undecided or don't know enough about
him.
Rubio
and Walker have lower unfavorable ratings and they are the least familiar to
Republican voters - at this early stage in the campaign, many are undecided or
haven't heard enough about each to have an opinion.
Most
Republican voters' views of Trump haven't changed in the last month, but more
say their opinions of him have become better (23 percent), than say worse (12
percent). However, the reverse is true among registered voters: they are more
likely to say their views of Trump have worsened.
Still,
among registered voters overall, both Trump and Bush are viewed more negatively
than positively. Thirty percent view Bush favorably, and 40 percent do not view
him favorably, and twenty-seven percent of registered voters hold a favorable
view of Trump, while 59 percent hold an unfavorable view of him. Opinions on
Rubio and Walker are split.
Trump's
wealth could be a positive when it comes to money and politics. Voters
nationwide are more inclined to prefer a candidate who uses their own personal
wealth to fund their campaign (28 percent), rather than one who raises money
through donations (13 percent). Views are similar across party lines. Still,
for a majority of voters - 56 percent - it doesn't matter if a candidate uses
their own money or donors' money to fund their campaigns.
While
most registered voters view the Republican candidates as mostly attacking each
other, 46 percent of Republican voters think the candidates are mostly
explaining what they would do as president; thirty-five percent say they are
mostly attacking each other.
Immigration
Fifty-nine
percent of Americans think most immigrants to the U.S. (not specifically
illegal immigrants) contribute to society rather than cause problems. Most
Democrats and independents hold this view, while Republicans are divided, with 43 percent saying most immigrants contribute
to the country and 42 percent saying that they cause problems.
Americans
continue to think that most illegal immigrants currently in the U.S. should be
able to apply for legal status, including 61 percent who support a path to
citizenship. Among Republicans, more than half (55 percent) back legal status,
but 41 percent think illegal immigrants should be required to leave the
country.
When
asked specifically about jobs, most say illegal immigrants generally take jobs
that Americans don't want. Republicans (42 percent) are more likely than
Democrats (18 percent) and independents (24 percent) to say illegal immigrants
take jobs from Americans.
Most
Americans think illegal immigrants are just as likely to commit crimes as U.S.
citizens. Republicans, however, are somewhat more inclined to say illegal
immigrants are more likely to commit crimes (33 percent) than U.S. citizens (11
percent).
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This poll was conducted by telephone July
29-August 2, 2015 among a random sample of 1,252 adults nationwide, including
1047 registered voters. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News by
SSRS of Media, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard
land-line and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the
entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for
subgroups may be higher. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. The
margin of error for the sample of 408 Republican primary voters is 5 percentage
points.
This poll release conforms to the Standards of
Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
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